The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) announced on Friday that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is pushing millions of people towards hunger. This situation is exacerbated by rising fuel and transportation costs, which lead to increased food
prices, while a severe funding shortage forces aid agencies to scale back their assistance. US-Israeli strikes on Iran, which occurred in late February, ignited a regional conflict that has spread across the Gulf and into Lebanon. This escalation has disrupted major
shipping routes, including the vital Strait of Hormuz, compelling vessels to reroute. This change in shipping paths has, in turn, sharply disturbed global energy flows and supply chains. In March, the WFP had projected that up to 45 million people could
face acute food insecurity if oil prices remained around $100 per barrel until June. The Programme indicated that this scenario is now materializing, with crude oil prices staying above that level since early March. Households in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Sri Lanka
are among the most severely affected, grappling with increased pressure due to surging fuel costs, higher food prices, loss of income, and disrupted trade. The WFP forecasts that in Somalia, 6.5 million people—nearly a third of the population—will face severe hunger
by 2026. In Afghanistan, 17.4 million could be impacted by the crisis. Conditions are expected to worsen, with 2.5 million Somalis and 2.3 million Afghans facing the risk of food insecurity should regional unrest persist. Both countries heavily rely on energy
and food imports to meet their basic needs. This Middle East crisis unfolds amid a severe funding deficit for international aid agencies. The WFP anticipates a reduction in the number of its beneficiaries globally by approximately 1.5 million people in
2026, and an additional nine million if current conditions continue for another six months. In Afghanistan, surging fuel prices have inflated aid transport costs by up to five times, and delivery times have stretched from 10 days to as long as
75 days, as trucks are forced to use longer and more challenging alternative routes, according to WFP data. In Somalia, the Programme noted that escalating jet fuel prices are increasing the operational costs for the UN Humanitarian Air Service, which
is the only safe means of reaching difficult-to-access areas by land. In a related development, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) stated on Friday that global food prices registered a slight decrease in May compared to their revised April
levels. Vegetable oil prices fell for the first time this year, while grain and sugar prices saw an increase. The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks changes in an internationally traded basket of food commodities, averaged 130.8 points in May. This
represents a 0.2 percent decrease from its revised April level of 131.0 points, yet it remained 2.9 percent higher than the previous year. Despite this slight correction in April data, the index stayed near its highest level since January 2023
but was 18.4 percent below its peak in March 2022. Grain prices rose by more than 2.6 percent during the month, with wheat prices increasing for the fourth consecutive month. This rise is attributed to lower export harvest forecasts, including in
the United States, as well as higher fuel and fertilizer costs linked to the regional conflict. The FAO added that corn prices also received support from increased import demand and lower supplies in Brazil and the United States. Conversely, vegetable oil
prices decreased by 4.6 percent compared to the previous month, marking their first monthly decline this year. A drop in palm oil and soybean oil prices outweighed the increase in rapeseed and sunflower oil prices. After rising for five consecutive
months, global palm oil prices declined, reflecting expectations of weaker global import demand and uncertainty in crude oil markets. Nevertheless, vegetable oil prices, on average, were still more than 20 percent higher than last year's prices, as increased energy costs
following the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to higher demand for biofuels made from organic materials, such as oil-rich plants. Sugar prices jumped by 7.5 percent compared to the previous month, reaching 95.1 points, though they remained
13.1 percent lower than their level a year ago. This increase is mainly due to concerns over an anticipated decrease in global sugar supplies in the coming months. In a separate report on cereal supplies, the FAO indicated that it
expects global cereal production, including milled rice, to decrease by 2 percent in the 2026-2027 season, reaching 2.98 billion tons. A decline in the production of all major cereals is anticipated, though for many, this is compared to the record
levels set in 2025, with wheat projected to experience the largest percentage decrease annually, and corn and barley the smallest.
