A recent study by the Rocket Force of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has urged Chinese cities to prepare for potential nuclear attacks, specifically identifying Japan as a "major danger signal" for the international community. The study, published by the
"South China Morning Post," notes the probability of a widespread global nuclear war remains "relatively low." However, it warned: "the possibility cannot be ruled out that small or medium-sized countries with nuclear weapons, or potentially acquiring them, driven by geopolitical
or religious conflicts, could launch a single nuclear terrorist attack on neighboring countries or major global cities." Japan's mention stems from its non-adherence to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, the first legally binding international agreement to ban nuclear
arms, adopted in 2017. It also claimed Japan is considering changes to its long-standing "Three Non-Nuclear Principles" – not possessing, producing, or allowing the introduction of nuclear weapons. The study stated: "Japan has not yet joined the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty,
and its current government is openly considering reviewing the 'non-introduction of nuclear weapons' principle within its 'Three Non-Nuclear Principles,' sending a significant danger signal." In January 2022, the five permanent UN Security Council members (China, US, Russia, Britain, France) jointly affirmed
that "a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought." However, the PLA study cautioned that "once some countries or terrorist groups risk such a danger, a nuclear terrorist attack on Chinese cities cannot be ruled out." An official
Chinese report from January claimed Tokyo "may have already secretly produced weapons-grade plutonium" and possesses "technological and economic capabilities for rapid nuclear armament." The report also indicated Japan "has established a comprehensive nuclear fuel cycle system and strong nuclear industrial
capabilities." To simulate a potential attack, a PLA Rocket Force study modeled a major Chinese city suffering a single low-yield tactical nuclear terrorist attack. Drawing on historical data from the 1945 Hiroshima bombing and global simulations, researchers identified medical team challenges,
including hazardous conditions, widespread social disruption, and complex injury patterns. In response, Beijing has established an emergency rescue network of over 30 bases for treating nuclear attack victims. Researchers urged expanding treatment capacity, providing additional resources, and enhancing specialized training. They
also recommended local authorities stockpile emergency supplies, including antibiotics and radiation protection equipment, maintaining "combat readiness." The study emphasized enhancing public awareness of nuclear and radiological safety, rescue protocols, and preventive measures to reduce panic and irrational behavior during emergencies. Compared
to civilian nuclear accident responses, the study warned that even a low-yield nuclear terrorist attack could lead to devastating casualties and complex, multiple injuries. The authors concluded such an event would pose an "immense test" for any city or nation's medical
capabilities, urging China to "prepare for a hard day." Beijing has long accused Tokyo of pursuing "rearmament" and frequently expressed suspicions regarding Japan's nuclear ambitions.
