The International Energy Agency affirmed today that the unconditional opening of the Strait of Hormuz is a vital step towards resolving the ongoing energy crisis. This affirmation comes as Fitch Ratings had previously anticipated a return to an oversupplied global
oil market within approximately one month, provided the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, regional production resumes, and maritime traffic returns to normal levels. The credit rating agency further clarified that the recovery of Middle Eastern oil production, alongside growth in
supplies from non-OPEC countries and the potential to increase output to maximum capacity, would exert downward pressure on oil prices, despite the persistence of geopolitical risk premiums. Fitch projected oil prices to decline during the second half of 2026, with
Brent crude averaging around $70 per barrel in the fourth quarter. It noted that an earlier reopening of Hormuz could push prices below these estimates. The agency also emphasized that even a temporary opening of the Strait would allow for
the rebuilding of global inventories of crude oil and essential products, thereby reducing the likelihood of the global economy facing severe disruptions in supply chains and energy sources. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has lowered its oil price forecasts for the coming months,
citing an increased probability of resumed crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, particularly following the interim agreement reached between the United States and Iran. The bank now anticipates Brent crude to average $90 per barrel during the third quarter
of the current year, a reduction from its previous estimate of $100, before further declining to $80 in the fourth quarter, representing a $15 cut from prior forecasts. In a related development, Goldman Sachs predicted that oil exports from Gulf states
would return to pre-conflict levels by the end of next month. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, in a note to clients, stated that the resumption of oil tanker flows is likely to take several weeks, projecting a 50% return in production
by September and 80% by December, a slightly faster pace than previously expected.
