Oil markets experienced a notable surge on Monday, fueled by escalating concerns over a prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern supply chains. This rise follows reciprocal attacks between the United States and Iran targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and
other maritime areas, sparking worries about the stability of vital shipping lanes. Brent crude futures climbed by 77 cents, or 0.80%, reaching $97.05 per barrel by 04:12 GMT. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced by 79 cents, or 0.86%,
to $92.27 per barrel. Crude prices had already seen significant gains last week, with Brent jumping 7.8% and WTI gaining approximately 10%. This surge occurred after the escalation of mutual attacks, which impacted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz,
a conduit for one-fifth of global oil supplies. In detailing recent events, the U.S. Central Command announced that its forces targeted three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one off Kharg Island near Iran's primary oil export hub. Concurrently, the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy reported on Saturday that it had targeted three oil tankers navigating unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to three American vessels in various locations. Marispex, a company specializing in maritime intelligence, described Saturday's
attacks as "a significant escalation in the maritime conflict." The company added that "commercial tankers are now deliberately being used as tools for reciprocal economic pressure, greatly eroding the previous distinction between military confrontation and commercial shipping." Data released by
Kepler on Monday also indicated that the daily average of commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz stood at 10 vessels over the past ten days, marking the lowest level since May. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ alliance announced its decision yesterday,
Sunday, to maintain its oil production policy unchanged for October. Analyzing the situation, analysts at ANZ Bank stated that the most probable scenario involves a prolonged confrontation, accompanied by calculated military maneuvers from both sides, which could delay a full
recovery of Middle Eastern supplies. Analysts predicted that "exports are expected to remain constrained through the remainder of 2026, before a gradual reopening in late Q4 2026," noting that pre-war flow levels might not return until late Q1 or early
Q2 of 2027.
