Goldman Sachs, the banking group, as reported by Bloomberg News on Sunday, forecasted a significant potential rise in oil prices should ongoing attacks targeting commercial shipping in the Middle East escalate. Amid this tense geopolitical landscape, the group recommended investing
in natural gas and diesel to capitalize on potential gains. In a related context, Dan Strueven, co-head of global commodity research at Goldman Sachs, emphasized during an interview with Bloomberg Television the importance of developments witnessed in the region over recent
days. He stated that "the risk of broadening and intensifying shipping disruptions represents a very important factor that must be taken into consideration when assessing the future of energy markets." Conversely, Strueven indicated that oil prices could retreat to $80
per barrel if regional exports return to normal and stable levels. Oil prices have already seen a continuous increase, driven by growing concerns over long-term disruption in supply chains originating from the Middle East. These fears are compounded by reciprocal attacks
between the United States and Iran, targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and other strategic maritime areas. Data showed Brent crude climbed 7.8% last week, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose approximately 10%. This surge followed the resumption
of attacks, leading to a notable decrease in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which, before the conflict, served as a passage for about one-fifth of global oil supplies. Data released by Kpler on Monday further confirms this tension in
shipping lanes, revealing the daily average passage of commodity vessels through the Strait of Hormuz reached only 10 ships over the past ten days. This marks the lowest level recorded since last May, reflecting a deterioration in vital maritime traffic. Meanwhile,
the "OPEC+" alliance announced yesterday, Sunday, during a meeting, its decision to maintain its current oil production policy unchanged for the upcoming month of October. This decision reflects cautious anticipation of geopolitical and economic market developments. Regarding future analyses, analysts at
ANZ Bank, in an analytical note, suggested the most probable scenario involves a prolonged confrontation between the United States and Iran, characterized by "calculated" military actions from both sides. They predicted this situation would delay the full recovery of Middle
Eastern oil supplies. The analysts added that exports would remain constrained throughout the remainder of 2026, with a potential gradual reopening beginning in late Q4 of 2026. However, oil flow levels are not expected to return to their pre-war state
until late Q1 or early Q2 of 2027, indicating protracted uncertainty in global energy markets.
